Author: Ryan Grace
January 3, 2025
Good morning my tasty friends, I hope you’re all having a wonderful start to your weekend. And to all my Chinese friends, Happy Year of the Snake!
If you’re remotely successful in this trading endeavor, you receive money for your time. Fail, and you lose time. An asset scarcer than coin.
Let us not waste time.
All Eyes On The Stars
With the change of the calendar, year-to-date performance has reset, and while it’s natural to bask in the gains of past trades, we must move forward. We must forge ahead. We’re 259 days post-halving and it’s all eyes on the stars. To leave this planet is to trust in the trajectory we’ve set, to defy the gravity of doubt, and to imagine a world where the highs we dream of are not just possible but inevitable.
Looking at The Radar Screen
Bitcoin is up about 4% to start the year, bouncing off the bottom of the range. For now, we’re in $90,000 – $110,000 territory. A 20k expanse. The old range was $50,000 – $75,000, Not much has changed, just a new range.
Are we going to take another shot at $110k this month? The options market currently assigns a 30% probability to a new high by month end.
Bitcoin market cap dominance hovers near its multi-year high. We’ve witnessed periodic flashes of outperformance in other areas of the market, but for the most part it’s still been bitcoin over everything. Big ass ETF flows and the persistent theme of institutional adoption is still driving.
Implied volatility is basically where it’s been all year, stuck at 60%.
At the current spot price and volatility, this gives us an expected weekly move of about $8,000 and a range of 89-105.
What if we’re untethered from this volatility? Should we return to prior highs, we’re talking 30 day implied vol closer to 90%. At current spot price, this gives us an expected weekly move of $12k. Trade accordingly.
ETH Is NOT Dead
While it’s the snake year, many bag holders I know are hopeful 2025 is also the year of ETH. There’s speculation of ETF options, ETF staking rewards, and even a DeFi renaissance.
To end the year, spot ETH ETFs recorded $2 billion of net inflows, doubling November’s flow, but ETH performance has still been dwarfed by BTC dominance.
The recent range is $3,000 – $4,000, so 30% short-term moves aren’t out of the question.
Looking at ETH implied vol of 72%, we see an expected weekly move of $350 and a range of 3.2 – 3.9.
If it really starts to move though, vol at 90% gives us a $450 move, for context.
I’ve got a lot of ETH in my bag, but the ETH/BTC ratio still looks trashy.
The range here has been .03-.04. Keep your eyes peeled, a move back to .04 and you probably get a $5k ETH price.
Don't Sleep On The Dog
Gimme that vol. With crypto catching a bid to start the year, DOGE is outperforming on the week, as we might expect, given the vol.
We’re near mid-range after a full blown November blast off and December pull-back. I like DOGE and other meme exposures in bull markets because of their sweet volatility.
I got that dog in me. I’ve also added this to my tastytrade crypto portfolio as it’s now available to trade, alongside BTC, ETH, BTC, and LTC. I hear more coins are coming soon though.
Can DOGE get to $.50, maybe… As a thought experiment, what if DOGE hit $1, if only for a moment, what would its market cap be?
Answer: $147 billion. That’s a juicy valuation, which all else equal would make it the third largest crypto by market cap.
Makes you think…
Solana
I’m a simple man. Solana’s market cap is currently $105 billion. Ethereum is valued at $431 billion. I think SOL closes the gap.
Polymarket says 77% chance of SOL ETF in 2025.
It is programmed.
We must perpetually move forward with a conscious awareness of the corrections that transcend cycles.
For if we are to leave this all behind, it’s only through process and risk management.
To the stars.
Ryan
Performance Dashboard
2024 W3WOWs
BAG BATTLES Update
💰 BAG BATTLES Update 💰
🚀 Ryan leads the pack with $SL at +31.56%, proving knowledge is power!
🐕 Mike’s $CHILLGUY is living up to its name, chilling in second at +26.05%.
💪 Meanwhile, Nick’s $degenai is taking some hits, down -5.08%.
Up Next
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